Beginning of March 2020 a lot of cases are going up each day here in Canada.? People are advised to stay home until the infection is over.
The Canadian government had a quick measure in financial emergency response on people who got laid off which is around 80% here in Vancouver, BC.
Health ministry was contemplating that the curve will be on a downward trajectory by summer.
I guess that with be in June or July.
But I’m very sure that most people will get rehired and get back to work again probably in the last quarter for the year.
It will be around fall that people will go back to normal.
With this kind of scenario, I think the vending machine business will back on track in September.
It is with the premise that people get hired during summertime and it will take another couple of months for everyone to go back to its normal spending habits.
As a vending machine operator, I will have no income significantly to pay most of my bills especially Mortgage, Rent, Work Van and Leasing on some vending machine equipment since the top performers are located in: Schools, community centers and Public Hotels.
I do not think there will be an influx of happy tourists spending money this year.
The locals will also be cash strapped since they will be rehired and we will know that employers will not hire the original workforce since there is no business activity.
The business activity will be done on a gradual rehiring process and it will be a slow process since the businesses will be observing if there will some isolated cases of re-infection and the most important is if there the actual buyers will be back?
Does this remain a big? mark.
For vending machine operators, I think realistically speaking from my experience, it will be the 2nd half of next year when everything will be again in full swing with the influx of tourists and reopening of borders.
Do you think there will be some riots?
This is some of the small business establishments that wanted to make sure no one smashes the windows and ransack the place and get some freebies
- No one in their right mind to be buying a property with the uncertainty of business now.
- No one will be watching movies when 80% of the workforce is laid off.
- Construction might be severely impacted when there are no foreign with deep pockets to buy overinflated real estate properties here in Vancouver.
- Restaurants that are open for taking out now are sitting on a landmine and might just be breaking even to pay for the expensive rent in Robson, Davie, Granville St.
- No one in the right mind wanted to pay off debts, credit cards, CRA, IRS taxes, rents, and mortgages.
When things get back to normal which might be late next year, the government will be finding ways things to snatch back from the huge losses that were given to Canadians.??
They will find ways to up the ante on collecting taxes and imposed heavy fines on COVID19 fake related claims.
I wish for once that the government will be compassionate and understanding of this situation.
For now, Cash is King.
Vending machine business cannot work from home so the business is absolutely heavily impacted!
Remembering the 1997 Asian Financial Crises
During that Era, I was a very promising computer parts company and hired around 10 employees during that time when I was still at a very young age.
I just got out of University during the 1990’s eager to try out my hand in the business world.
During that time the whole world was looking at the Emerging Asian Tigers and one of them was the Philippines.
The Asian financial crises were triggered in July 1997.? During that time Asia was an economic miracle and any kind of business is flourishing.? Everyone during that time has a lot of capital reserves.
Everything was going up:
- Real Estate,
- Construction Boom,
- Mega Shopping Mall,
- Recreation Centers,
- Local Travel etc.
Anything that you have in mind you name it even the smallest business is booming.
It was that time when Thailand had localized currency speculation.
It soon spread to Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.? The exchange rate during that time as I remembered vividly was $1 US Dollar to Php 25 Pesos and suddenly the interest rates shot up from 12% to 35% and Philippines Currency devalued to $1 US Dollar to Php 35 Pesos.
As a small business operator, all my products are coming from:
- Taiwan and
- Hong Kong
have become more expensive because of the exchange rate.
Do you know what happened as a small business operator?
Sales were severely hit and all orders were halved.
So what happened?
This is maybe an analogy to what is happening here in Vancouver, BC Canada as a small business owner.
Back then, I have to layoff 80% of the workforce back then in the Philippines and had to contend with just 3 people running the company.
As a small business owner, I have to multi-task: Sales Call, Deliver.
Even downsizing is not enough.
During that time most of the businesses in the Philippines went under and declared bankruptcy.
There was :
- No Philippine emergency benefit
- No Deferred payments on the loan from banks
- No Deferred payments on mortgages
- No Deferred payments on Leased Equipment
- No Deferred payments on Bill of Lading ( Importation )
By the fall of 1997, the contagion reached South Korea, Hong Kong, and China.? A Pandemic Financial meltdown had been ignited!
In 1998, Brazil and Russia is experiencing free fall on their economy.? From the mighty Wall Street to Tokyo Stock Exchange, hit record lows.
It was very uncertain during that time!
It was only on May 12, 1999, that the Wall Street stock market prices was stable.
Here is the TIMELINE.
With this analogy in mind, the impact of the Coronavirus may take up to 2 years before businesses get back on their feet! ( This is just a guess, this is by no means conclusive )
What was left with the small business basically in Asia which was left out surviving?
- It took me about ## years to pay off everything to the banks and loans.
- Bad credit, taxes unpaid, lawsuits, legal fees, bank collection statements, credit card collection statements.
- I was able to recover and had very good years during the 2000s until COVID19.
I’m afraid the vending machine operators will be taking a lot of heat from collection agencies, government taxes, loans and perhaps?
Since this is 2020, let us see what the Canadian government can do to help its citizens and small business owners.
The spread of the coronavirus in poultry and humans has come as a shock to many scientists.
While they were focused on investigating how the virus could be transmitted from animal to human, they could not have foreseen that it would be so easily transmittable from one human to another. If you read the news, you might think the virus is responsible for cases of chickenpox or the common cold; however, it is not.
If you are not familiar with the virus, it is spreading at a very fast rate and creating an economic impact on the economy, which has never been seen before.
It seems that since the virus has been discovered and sent to laboratories for testing, the numbers of cases of the virus have been increasing more rapidly than anticipated.
There are now in excess of sixty countries where this virus is found and spreading rapidly.
These outbreaks can literally affect your own economy; this is the reality as far as this virus goes.
However, with a few precautions, your own economy will be protected. While this virus is known to infect people, not all cases will be life-threatening.
In a lot of cases, a person who contracts the virus will not experience any sort of financial or non-financial economic effect.
In fact, there are often no symptoms at all. However, if your family member, spouse, or coworker has this disease, you need to take action now.
There are already problems with food security, debt, and financial strain, all due to this virus.
When you learn about how the virus has impacted on the economy, you will be able to see the big picture; remember, your health is not always considered when your loved ones are trying to live a “normal” life.
There is no question that if the virus spreads even further, this could be a catastrophe.
- After all, what if the virus can break out in a place that a lot of people frequent, like a restaurant?
- Some food items that are easily grown, like peanuts, contain the virus.
- If the virus can break out, how will the lives of all the food servers and other staff members be affected?
- Will they lose their jobs?
- What about the insurance company, when will they be liable for the money owed?
The world has no idea how this virus is spreading and where it will come from.
It is almost as if we are playing Russian roulette with our own health.
If the virus is really the cause of this current outbreak, then the world is going to be at serious risk, both physically and financially.
The virus is affecting many countries, including the United States, and so, the health care systems in those countries are having a hard time keeping up with the demand.
This affects people who travel and those who work with animals. In fact, you might say that the risk of a human case is the biggest concern.
To keep yourself and your family protected, do not let this virus is the cause of your economic burden.
Although the spread of the virus is causing concern, it is better to be safe than sorry.